Zuzana Lizcová & Rob Geist Pinfold’s article in the European Journal of International security examines whether strategic narratives and grand strategies tend to persist or transform in the aftermath of traumatic geopolitical shocks. It analyses Israel’s response to the 7 October 2023 attacks alongside Czechia’s reaction to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Drawing on (i) qualitative content analysis of political leaders’ speeches and (ii) an assessment of Israeli and Czech grand strategies, the study finds that the scale of change corresponded to the intensity of perceived shock and threat. Israel, confronted with a first-order critical juncture, undertook a sweeping overhaul of its grand strategy, whereas Czechia, facing a second-order critical situation, implemented more limited strategic adjustments. Despite these differences, both cases reveal a common pattern: leaders relied on pre-existing beliefs and narratives to frame and legitimise policy shifts, indicating that continuity and change in grand strategy are mutually constitutive rather than oppositional.
Overall, the article contributes new primary-source evidence on two ongoing conflicts, challenges the great-power bias in grand strategy scholarship, and highlights the central role of rhetoric in enabling or constraining grand strategic change.