by Michal Smetana, Marek Vranka, Ondřej Rosendorf

The influence of American public opinion on Cold War-era arms control talks, particularly between the United States and the Soviet Union, is well-documented. Public pressure led to significant arms control agreements, including the Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 and major treaties in the late 1980s. However, recent developments, like Moscow's suspension of the New START Treaty and Russia's deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, alongside China's unregulated nuclear expansion, pose new challenges. With the future of nuclear arms control in question, this paper examines whether the U.S. public supports engaging in arms control talks with Russia and China. An original survey reveals that, despite limited knowledge of specific agreements, Americans overwhelmingly support arms control, driven by bipartisan concerns over nuclear war and compliance risks.

by Jan Hornát.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) will likely impact all aspects of the human experience and international relations are no exception. Decision-making in foreign policy is contingent on the availability of information, which is, however, often scarce. As a supporting tool for policymakers, states have come to employ various methods of foresight and scenario-building in order to better understand and evaluate the behavior of adversaries and the possible results of their own decisions. It is particularly the domain of foresight and data-informed diplomacy, where generative AI could significantly impact the decision-making process. This paper first maps out how generative AI can be leveraged to serve as a “hyper-informed” forecaster and advisor to foreign policymakers and then proceeds to problematize the said developments. Ethical and practical issues related to deterrence and decision-making authority of AI in the chain of command are then discussed as the new security dilemmas of AI integration into policymaking.