Most Russian nuclear messaging during the war in Ukraine has not been about explicit nuclear threats, but about amplifying uncertainty and fear. The PRCP and SWP have recently published a working paper that systematically tracks this dynamic. Come join us on January 27th at 19:00 in Kavárna Na Boršově where we will introduce the study and discuss it with the authors! Register here.
Our Director Michal Smetana has won the Neuron Award for Promising Scientists 2025 in the field of social sciences. The jury praised his innovative approach to combining the fields of international relations, security studies, and political psychology, into which he has introduced experimental methods from natural sciences. We sincerely congratulate him on the success!
Despite water infrastructure being legally protected under international law, states have used it as a weapon in armed conflict. Eliška Pohnerová’s article explores how the United States advocate for the prohibition of water weaponization in three armed conflicts. Results show that water norms are in practice closer to humanitarian crisis prevention than a deterrence mechanism.
Michal Onderčo’s book Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella explores the collapse of great-power arms control since the mid-2010s and the resulting rise in nuclear risks for Europe, alongside a new abolition movement. It shows how European policymakers balanced renewed deterrence pressures with domestic demands, offering a novel theory of democratic foreign policy-making.
In November 2025, PRCP researchers alongside Stephen Herzog (Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey) published “Atomic responsiveness” in the European Journal of International Security. The article sparked an academic exchange with Florian Eblenkamp (ICAN). This Policy Brief series presents his response and Herzog’s rejoinder.
How has the 12 Day War influenced the Islamic Republic’s domestic situation and legitimacy in Iran? Jakub Koláček addresses this question in his policy brief, arguing that the current apparent weakening of the regime does not mean its ending. He provides deeper insight into the historical context of the country as well as recommendations for European diplomacy.
This working paper by SWP and PRCP chronologically traces nuclear signaling in Russia’s war against Ukraine from autumn 2021 to January 2025, coding 452 Russian and Western public statements. Results show a strong asymmetry: Russia focused on amplifying nuclear risk perceptions, while the West emphasized deterrence, restraint and de-escalation.
A new policy brief by Vojtěch Bahenský analyzes how the new ANO-led Czech government may shift toward more cautious, low-profile support for Ukraine. The document assesses both the political will and the military capacity for any future Czech role in the Multinational Force Ukraine (MFU). The policy brief was published within a project on the MFU by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
