Michal Onderčo’s book Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella explores the collapse of great-power arms control since the mid-2010s and the resulting rise in nuclear risks for Europe, alongside a new abolition movement. It shows how European policymakers balanced renewed deterrence pressures with domestic demands, offering a novel theory of democratic foreign policy-making.
In November 2025, PRCP researchers alongside Stephen Herzog (Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey) published “Atomic responsiveness” in the European Journal of International Security. The article sparked an academic exchange with Florian Eblenkamp (ICAN). This Policy Brief series presents his response and Herzog’s rejoinder.
How has the 12 Day War influenced the Islamic Republic’s domestic situation and legitimacy in Iran? Jakub Koláček addresses this question in his policy brief, arguing that the current apparent weakening of the regime does not mean its ending. He provides deeper insight into the historical context of the country as well as recommendations for European diplomacy.
This working paper by SWP and PRCP chronologically traces nuclear signaling in Russia’s war against Ukraine from autumn 2021 to January 2025, coding 452 Russian and Western public statements. Results show a strong asymmetry: Russia focused on amplifying nuclear risk perceptions, while the West emphasized deterrence, restraint and de-escalation.
A new policy brief by Vojtěch Bahenský analyzes how the new ANO-led Czech government may shift toward more cautious, low-profile support for Ukraine. The document assesses both the political will and the military capacity for any future Czech role in the Multinational Force Ukraine (MFU). The policy brief was published within a project on the MFU by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
Can public opinion shape elite attitudes toward the use of nuclear weapons? Our new study in EJIS finds that public support increases policymakers’ willingness to endorse nuclear first use. While finding that effects are weaker in retaliation scenarios, the study concludes that sympathetic public opinion strenthens the credibility of third-party nuclear threats.
We are thrilled to welcome Anna Šillerová, Klára Kosová, Tobias Risse and Alžběta Šillerová as new members of our PRCP team! Their research will enable us to broaden our focus into areas such as public discourse and national identity, computational science, individuals’ positions toward foreign and security policy, arms control as well as emerging and disruptive technologies.
This week, the Czech Security Forum 2025 brought together leading global experts to discuss whether we’ve entered a Second Cold War. Featuring keynote speaker Barry Buzan, the event explored shifting power dynamics, global rivalries, and Czech foreign policy resilience, showcasing the increasing importance of collaboration between academia and foreign & security policy.
